Innovation in the US is Declining...
Starting TBDFutures SubStack with a sobering piece...
🙀 Surprised? Innovation is declining 🔻 in the US 🇺🇸...
The Roland Berger Innovation Indicator 2024 offers a comprehensive assessment of innovation across 35 economies, evaluating countries through 23 individual indicators, and 3 critical areas:
Innovation Capability
Key Technologies
Sustainability
The report highlights a persistent 🔻 decline in 🇺🇸 the United States' innovation performance over recent years. Several factors contribute to this trend, both from the report and from other sources as I researched:
Long-term erosion: The US has experienced a gradual decline in innovation performance since the mid-2000s.
Pandemic impact: R&D spending growth in the US slowed to just 0.1% in 2020, compared to a 6.6% average annual growth from 2010-2019 (National Science Foundation, 2022).
Key technology gaps: The US fails to secure a top 3 ranking in any of the seven key technologies examined: digital hardware, digital networks, advanced production technologies, energy technologies, advanced materials, biotechnology, and circular economy.
Sector-specific challenges: The US is losing ground in larger technology fields. For instance, the US share of global R&D in chemicals dropped from 28% in 2008 to 20% in 2018 (National Science Board, 2020).
Additional Data Illustrating the Decline:
• Global Innovation Index: US ranked 3rd in 2021, down from 1st in 2017 (WIPO, 2021).
• Patent applications: Down 3.9% in 2020, the first decline since 2009 (U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, 2021).
• High-tech exports: US share of global high-tech exports decreased from 16.2% in 2000 to 7.1% in 2020 (World Bank, 2021).
Now, what’s slowing down innovation in the US?
The Silent Killers of Innovation, and how we can overcome them one by one
I recently reviewed a Forbes article where the author Andrew Binns identified three critical innovation "silent killers":
🙈 "Don't see it coming": Blind to disruptive changes
🤔 "See it but don't believe it": Fail to understand impacts and implications of what's about to happen, including missing out on opportunities in the vision
😴 "See it, believe it, but fail to act": Struggle to take effective action either as a defense / preparation or as a way to proactively create a preferred outcome (future)
These align perfectly with the challenges I see in building innovation labs and serving clients on their innovation efforts. I've tested, iterated, and proven a few ways to tackle them. "To Be Determined, Designed, and Developed", these 3 key steps at the core of TBD Futures approach address these challenges head-on:
👀 To Be Determined: From blindness to clarity
With horizon scanning and scenario planning, we can identify emerging trends and potential disruptions. By exploring multiple future scenarios, we can develop the foresight needed to recognize critical signals of change before they become disruptive forces.
💡To Be Designed: From skepticism to creative vision
Embracing design thinking can help organizations generate ideas across various future scenarios, encouraging stakeholders to take emerging trends seriously. By revealing cross-cutting themes and latent opportunities, companies can better understand the true potential impact of trends they might otherwise underestimate.
🏃♂️To Be Developed: From stagnation to enabled actions
Creating actionable roadmaps is essential for guiding proactive steps toward preferred future outcomes. Organizations should focus on translating insights into tangible innovations and strategic initiatives, ensuring they have the agility to act effectively as the future unfolds.
By addressing these 👾 silent killers 👾 of innovation, leaders and the organizations they lead can not only recognize and understand the implications of disruptive changes but also take meaningful action to respond to them.
🔑 The key to innovation success lies in embracing uncertainty, exploring multiple futures, and developing the agility to act effectively. As we navigate this complex landscape, it’s crucial for leaders to embrace and encourage exploration and experimentation.
❓ What innovation obstacles do you encounter in your organization?
❓ What's your approach?
I founded TBD Futures after years of experience in design and innovation, at corporations, startups, and consultancies, helping organizations make better decisions and take better actions. www.tbdfutures.com
Sources:
Roland Berger Innovation Indicator 2024
National Science Foundation, National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (2022)
National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators (2020)
WIPO Global Innovation Index (2021)
Bloomberg Innovation Index (2022)
U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (2021)
World Bank High-Technology Exports Data (2021)
Forbes, "The Three Innovation Killers" (2023)
Image created w/ the help of MidJourney